During his April 12 address to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, Nigeria’s Acting President, Goodluck Jonathan adopted the tone and tenor of a reformer. Unfortunately he offered only a few encouraging signs of reform.
He outlined electoral reform, Niger Delta development, fighting corruption, and improving electricity as his principle goals. This indicates a refreshing sense of consistency with his other recent messages, suggesting that there is indeed a “Jonathan Agenda” taking shape. This agenda has been properly discrete, given the lingering uncertain status of Yar’Adua’s health. Yet to establish his credibility abroad and to generate political support for reform at home, Jonathan will have to provide a level of detail that is so far missing during his visit. He will also have to prioritize what so far sounds a bit like a laundry list of Nigeria’s ongoing challenges.
His reticence about his meeting with Obama the day before is understandable, and there was even a hint in his CFR comments that he was surprised that several other people attended what he thought was going to be a private meeting.
Electoral Reform
Jonathan’s public commitment to electoral reform is refreshing and significant. His stated commitment to allowing observers would depart from the strategy of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2007, which involved erecting obstacles for domestic and international civil society. He made clear that results should be declared at the polling unit level too, which he specified as a valuable means of demonstrating that elections are fair and verifiable. Such issues will fall in the lap of INEC, and following the firing of the attorney general and then the cabinet a few weeks later, Maurice Iwu, the discredited chair of INEC has been awaiting his fate. Jonathan provided some clues as to his next step by indicating that the term of several commissioners will soon expire, implying that Iwu’s dismissal is only a matter of time.
The disadvantage to waiting, of course, is that the 2011 election then becomes another hurried preparation process, replete with systematic corruption that can be blamed on logistical problems — which was precisely my own observation during 2003. A more urgent concern is his allusion that much of this reform can be accomplished without legislation. This comes as a great surprise since the National Assembly has been feverishly working on electoral reform amendments for several months, which will certainly require Jonathan’s signature. Electoral reform decreed or administratively implemented by an acting president is a recipe for electoral dystopia.
Human Rights and the Niger Delta
His answers were decidedly evasive on two key questions yesterday: First, asked about impunity by a representative of Human Rights Watch in the audience, Jonathan said that the security forces often respond heavily because they are outgunned – and those guns significantly come from the West. While he entirely has my sympathy, and the U.S. Congressional Research Service has indeed documented alarming arms export trends to Africa, this response has little to do with him making a commitment from the top to investigate and prosecute human rights violations at all levels and to follow the trail wherever it may lead (anyone watching Kenya?) His reference to the weather in Plateau State as a source of the migration that in turn led to violence in Jos sounded downright odd, and perhaps a bit like Montesquieu.
Nevertheless, his request for help from the U.S. on stemming small arms traffic in Nigeria is a near 180 degree reversal from the statements offered by Nigerian Foreign Minister Ojo Maduekwe all through last year. Africom, will you stem the flow of arms or will you contribute to the flow of arms? Obama has an opportunity to respond to a major African leader ‘s offer by creating disincentives for commercial arms sales and by enhancing the human rights conditionalities placed on government financing for arms sales.
Second, Jonathan’s response on the Niger Delta properly outlined the basic elements of the ongoing amnesty program, including demobilization and reintegration. But he missed an opportunity to demonstrate his seriousness by acknowledging its tragically modest progress so far — including reintegration camps for hundreds of militants without adequate toilets or showers and overpayment for disarmament. Though he has been intimately involved in the amnesty — and thus he carries some of the burden of these shortcomings — he also has an opportunity to increase the chances of this program’s success under his leadership now.
Is Nigeria Really Going Nuclear?
The moderator, former ambassador Howard Jeter, also asked a thoughtful question about Nigeria’s leadership on foreign policy. The easy answer, since Jonathan is in town after all for a nuclear summit, would have been to say that Africa is a nuclear free continent thanks to successful arms control (see Joe Cirincione’s excellent book on the history of nuclear weapons), and that Nigeria will exercise its leadership to keep it that way. Instead, the Acting President’s talking points produced a meandering answer that included Nigeria’s interest in nuclear power (!), acknowledging the critical role of the IAEA of course.
What next for Nigeria, Mr. Acting President? We await his public comments tomorrow.